Memo 1: Power Shift

A brief history lesson of the factions that have fought for control of San Francisco government for decades.

Creative Commons Jeremy Brooks

Voters delivered the most significant mandate for change to the San Francisco Government in decades.

The closest comparable to the shift in power on the Board of Supervisors ‘22-’24 is the progressive sweep election in ‘01. The closest comparable to Daniel Lurie’s ‘outsider’ election as mayor is probably progressive Art Agnos’ election in 1988.

Both happening concurrently have no recent comparison:

• Progressives have controlled the Board of Supervisors for all but a few of the past 23 years 

• The last time progressives won the Mayor’s race was Art Agnos in 1988

• The last time San Francisco elected a mayor from outside of government was 1911

Here is how control over the Board of Supervisors has shifted over the past three years:

District 11 race is still too close to call.

The Factions—Moderates vs Progressives

A prerequisite for understanding the power struggle that drives much (but not all..) of San Francisco politics and governance is understanding how factional power works in our city. So, I will briefly explain the factions. I recommend reading Left Coast City by Richard Edward DeLeon for a deeper understanding.

The Moderates

The Moderates descended from the ‘downtown growth machine,’ an alliance of business and labor that controlled the levers of San Francisco power for much of mid-century. They built a lot of our city, and they did some terrible things, such as trying to carve up the city with highways and razing the neighborhood of Fillmore, which was once “the Harlem of the West Coast.”

The structures of this power coalition have been degrading for decades, as regional banks and businesses disengaged from local politics and labor changed up their strategy. More recently, however, the YIMBY movement in San Francisco has injected new energy and leadership into this faction.

The Progressives

The Progressives are a hodgepodge coalition comprised of far-left groups (e.g., DSA), NIMBYs, and some labor. They have done important things, including stopping the city from being cut up by highways. Progressives came to power in the 70s and 80s in reaction to the downtown growth machine and successfully rewrote our city’s land-use laws, effectively “preserving  the city in amber.” 

This power alliance between NIMBYs and the far-left explains Dean Preston, a DSA member who opposes market-rate housing. The Progressives must pick up Westside seats to control the Board of Supervisors. So the deal has been: “Do all the lefty stuff you want downtown… just don’t build any apartment buildings on the west side of San Francisco.”

Small margins have decided the balance of power on the Board of Supervisors. Dean Preston defeated Vallie Brown by ~170 votes. Connie Chan beat Marjan Philhour by ~125 votes. Joel Engardio beat Gordan Mar by ~500 votes.

The Progressives, to their credit, have been enacting their policy promises. But those beliefs have been out of sync with voters for some time; read these GrowSF Polls:

1. 3:1 voters want to build market-rate housing

2. 3:1 want to condition housing & service on drug treatment

3. 3:1 want to arrest opioid users (and compel drug treatment)

4. 5:1 want street homeless put in care without consent

5. 19:1 want to arrest fentanyl dealers

The gap between the legislative actions of the Progressives and what voters want is catching up with them.

Downtown Moderate Mayor v.s. Progressive Neighborhood Supervisors

The Moderates have controlled the Mayor’s office for the past 31 years since Frank Jordan, San Francisco’s Chief of Police, defeated Art Agnos. (Jordan ran his campaign on the promise of clearing up homeless encampments.) Progressives have controlled the Board of Supervisors for all but a few of the past 23 years 

This oppositional setup has created a de facto-divided government for decades.

The political stakes have been high, as San Francisco has been a pipeline of nationally prominent electeds such as Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris. In the bloodsport of San Francisco politics, the Moderates and Progressives may as well be the Montegues v.s. the Capulets of Governing San Francisco.

For those pinning their hopes on this power shift fixing San Francisco in one swoop, let me tell you a story:

There once was a U.S. city of 800,000 people whose government was a mess. So they elected the right people, and after a lot of careful work, they completely restructured their charter, which is the guts of how their government operates. They cleaned up their government design and created a modern, strong mayor & city administrator system. Then, they elected a generational talent as their Mayor, empowered by these new structures.

This was San Francisco in 1996. That year, San Franciscans voted to overhaul their city charter completely and elected Willie Brown as Mayor. Mayor Brown was the longest-serving speaker in the history of the California State Assembly and one of the “most powerful politicians California has ever known.”

Since then, our budget has grown by 4x, outcomes have been uneven at best, and our civic institutions have weakened. The entrenched factionalism—Moderates v.s. Progressives—has yielded an environment unconducive to effective governance. When everyone is constantly distracted by a political circus, it is much easier for entrenched interests to get their way.

Romeo and Juliet is a tragedy.

What happens this time is up to us.

Transitions to power are critical to success in governing. Like corporate transitions, you are ‘baking a cake’ in the first 100 days of your administration, and missteps reverberate for years.

Successful transitions to power are determined by the preparation of the teams entering government. This ‘transition period’ is the two months before the first 100 days in power.

Given this, the next sixty days are among the most critical periods for San Francisco's governance in decades. Future memos will be written to share some basic knowledge required to govern San Francisco. The learning curve is immense, so we’ll cover the most critical and timely topics first.